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04/22/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two young left-handers will go head-to-head when the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers continue a three-game series tonight at the Rogers Centre.
David Purcey gets the call for the homestanding Jays tonight and will make another attempt at earning his first victory of 2009. The former first-round pick, who turns 27 today, is 0-1 with a pair of no-decisions over his first three starts, but he's pitched to a subpar 6.46 earned run average during those outings.
Walks have been a problem for Purcey in the early going, as he's issued 13 free passes in just 15 1/3 innings of work. He walked four batters in a poor 3 2/3-inning stint against Oakland this past Friday, a game in which the University of Oklahoma product allowed five runs in a no-decision.
Purcey faced the Rangers once as a rookie last season and took the loss in an 8-4 verdict in Arlington on August 3. He served up three home runs in that game and was charged with five runs allowed in five innings.
Matt Harrison gets the call for Texas tonight and is also seeking his first win of the young season. The 23-year-old has suffered the loss in each of his initial two starts of 2009, including a home setback to Kansas City on Friday.
Harrison worked five innings against the Royals but was reached for six runs on eight hits, including a pair of homers, while walking four batters. He doled out five free passes in his season debut at Detroit on April 11, while surrendering four runs over 5 2/3 frames.
A third-round selection by Atlanta in the 2003 draft, Harrison posted a 9-3 record in 15 starts as a rookie for the Rangers last season. He will be opposing Toronto for the first time.
Texas won Tuesday's opener of this set by a 5-4 score, with Ian Kinsler's two- run homer in the top of the seventh inning snapping a 3-3 tie.
Nelson Cruz also had a two-run blast for the Rangers, who were coming off a 6-5 victory over Kansas City on Sunday, while starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy (2-0) held the Jays to three runs over six innings to record the win.
Roy Halladay (3-1) was handed his first defeat of 2009 after the Toronto ace permitted all five Texas runs in an eight-inning stint. Halladay did strikeout nine without a walk, however.
Aaron Hill finished 2-for-5 with a solo homer for the AL East-leading Blue Jays, who had won four of five coming in.
Texas split its eight games with the Blue Jays last season, but won both matchups held at the Rogers Centre.
<< Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2009 Draft Preview (Revised)
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After acquiring Byron Leftwich via free agency, Tampa
Bay can now concentrate on a position other than quarterback with its only
selection among the first 80 picks. The Buccaneers front four played very
poorly down the stretc
<< Giants, Padres wrap brief set
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Francisco Giants have had their problems on the
road during the early part of this season, but they've been quite good at home
so far.
The Giants shoot for a sweep of a brief two-game series with the San Diego
Pad
<< Haren hopes for a little support versus Rockies
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dan Haren hopes his string of hard-luck starts comes to an
end when the Arizona hurler takes the hill for the Diamondbacks in today's
rubber match of a three-game series with the Colorado Rockies at Chase Field.
Haren has
<< Pirates go for sweep of Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Marlins haven't managed many runs versus the Pirates
and they haven't even faced their top pitcher yet. Pittsburgh's Paul Maholm
looks to extend his torrid start today in the finale of a three-game set with
Florida at PNC
Cubs' Lilly takes hill vs. Reds >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago's Ted Lilly will try for a rare win over Cincinnati
tonight, when the Cubs resume their three-game set with the Reds at Wrigley
Field.
Lilly is just 1-5 with a 5.24 earned run average in nine career starts vers
Phils, Brewers resume set in South Philly >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time Joe Blanton faced the Brewers, he pitched the
Phillies into the NLDS. Getting the Phillies over .500 tonight would be a nice
encore.
Philadelphia sends Blanton to the hill tonight in the second game of a thr
Nats aim for sweep of Braves in DC >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Nationals will try to continue their sudden
surge this evening, as they aim for a sweep of a three-game series with the
Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park.
The Nationals began the season just 1-10, a star
Philadelphia Eagles 2009 Draft Preview (Revised) >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Eagles took care of a major offseason need last week,
when they acquired Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters from the Bills in a
package that sent the team's No. 28 overall pick to Buffalo. With that need
out of the way, Ph
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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