Lekic, Osasuna sink Barcelona

Soccer Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Navarra, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barcelona's title ambitions took a massive hit on Saturday as Dejan Lekic scored a first-half brace to help Osasuna stun the defending champions, 3-2, at the Estadio El Sadar.

Lekic provided an early blow to the visitors when he scored in the fourth minute, while the advantage was doubled in the 21st when Lekic got on the other end of a low cross from Alvaro Cejudo to finish off the play at close range.

Barca found a way back into the match early in the second half with Isaac Cuenca's cross being converted from a few yards out by Alexis Sanchez, only for the hosts to restore their two-goal lead five minutes later with Raul Garcia knocking a shot off the near post and into the net.

Cristian Tello came off the bench to pull a goal back for Barca in the 73rd with a fine left-footed strike from inside the penalty area, but Osasuna continued to threaten as Francisco Punal struck the post.

The visitors poured on the pressure over the final 15 minutes, and after Sanchez had a goal ruled out for offsides, the Chile international was denied by a good save from Osasuna goalkeeper Andres Fernandez.

Barca's final chance to claim a point came deep into stoppage time when a header from Cesc Fabregas was saved by Fernandez from eight yards.

Pep Guardiola's men are now seven points back of leaders Real Madrid, who can move 10 points clear with a win on Sunday at home against Levante.

Real Betis 2, Athletic Bilbao 1

Seville, Spain - Real Betis moved three points above the drop zone on Saturday as Nelson's stoppage-time goal handed the home side a 2-1 win over Athletic Bilbao.

Ruben Castro fired Betis in front in the opening 10 minutes when he curled a shot inside the far post from 10 yards, only for Javi Martinez to cancel out the tally 12 minutes later with a headed goal from a corner kick for Athletic.

But Martinez received his second yellow card in the 63rd, and Nelson snatched all three points for his side with a well-struck volley from the edge of the penalty area to help Betis snap a run of three losses in four games.

Racing 0, Atletico Madrid 0

Santander, Spain - Atletico Madrid was held to a second successive 0-0 draw on Saturday, this time at Racing.

The visitors dominated play for long spells, especially in the second half, but were unlucky not to leave El Sardinero with three points.

Atletico was especially in control in the second half as Diego struck the post after exchanging passes with Arda Turan, while Radamel Falcao also wasted a great opportunity as he shot the ball against the post after collecting a rebound from Diego's shot.

A win could have temporarily lifted Atletico into the top four, but the club will have to settle for extending its unbeaten streak to six games.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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