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04/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The final two Grade 1 three-year-old Kentucky Derby prep races highlight an exciting weekend of racing as the Run for the Roses is just three weeks away. Will a horse from the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes provide a challenge to the current three favorites, Eskendereya, Lookin At Lucky and Sidney's Candy? We'll know the answer come Saturday night.
Leading the charge in the $1 million Arkansas Derby are Noble's Promise and Dublin, the second and third-place finishers in the Rebel Stakes. Also in the mix are Super Saver, Uh Oh Bango, Northern Giant, Pulsion, Line of David, New Madrid and Berberis.
Noble's Promise, who sports three victories in his last six starts, finally gets to run without Lookin At Lucky grabbing the headlines. The two-year-old champ has defeated the Ken McPeek-trained colt the last three races.
The Arkansas Derby will be Noble's Promise's second start off a three-month layoff, so improvement is expected from his close second-place finish to Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel. In addition, he's likely to inherit a great stalking trip behind both Super Saver and Line of David.
Dublin had a much tougher trip in the Rebel, going five-wide into the first turn then needing a pair of moves to range alongside Noble's Promise around the final turn. However, when asked to keep up with that colt, as well as Lookin At Lucky, he failed in every sense of the word, losing by a solid three lengths.
One of two D. Wayne Lukas horses in the race, Dublin will have his fifth straight rider change this Saturday as Terry Thompson, who rode him in the Southwest Stakes, regains the mount. The horse is not bred to go more than one mile so it's doubtful he'll be able to challenge Noble's Promise once again.
One other horse from the Rebel will take a shot in the Arkansas Derby and that's the fourth-place finisher, Uh Oh Bango.
Like Noble's Promise, Uh Oh Bango should improve off his last performance, his first since early December. He was severely squeezed at the start from both sides as Royal Express veered out and Pleasant Storm bore in. However, it took him quite a long time to eventually get past the speedy (and outclassed) Royal Express at the top of the stretch, which shows the son of Top Hit was a little short coming off the layoff. He could be the horse in this race the public overlooks.
Coming from post position one, Super Saver will make his second start of the 2010 season after finishing third by a half-length in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Leading for much of the early part of the race, Super Saver was overtaken by Schoolyard Dreams around the far turn, but fought back gamely along the rail while running on his wrong lead through the stretch. That race should do him a world of good stretching out to nine furlongs for the first time.
Super Saver is well bred to handle the distance, but he only knows one way to run and that's on the lead. If the pace is too quick early, it's doubtful he'll be able to hold off Noble's Promise through the lane. On the other hand, if the other speed rates, he could be long gone.
One horse I don't expect to be on the lead is Pulsion. His front-running trip in the Florida Derby was the exception, not the rule. Even with a change of tactics, it's doubtful he's good enough to challenge for the win on Saturday.
D. Wayne Lukas sends Northern Giant into the Arkansas Derby just two weeks after running in the Lane's End Stakes. This will be the colt's fourth race since February so expect a regression after two consecutive in-the-money finishes.
One longshot to keep in mind is the lightly-raced New Madrid. The son of Rock Hard Ten rebounded from his loss to Endorsement in a maiden race to earn a victory of his own three weeks later. However, this field is a lot tougher than the one Endorsement faced in the Sunland Derby so proceed with caution.
Only one winner of the Arkansas Derby (Smarty Jones) has won the Kentucky Derby since 1983 so it's doubtful the winner will come right back three weeks later and be draped with the blanket of roses. Still, it's a very good betting race since most of the combatants will be running not only to take the winner's share of the purse, but also to be eligible to come back on the first Saturday in May.
Selections: 1) Noble's Promise; 2) Uh Oh Bango; 3) Super Saver
IS THE BLUE GRASS SUDDENLY A TURF RACE?
It's a known fact turf horses prefer synthetics over conventional dirt. So it shouldn't come as a shock that three of the top five betting choices in the Blue Grass are grass lovers.
Make Music for Me comes over from California where he proved victorious in the Pasadena Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita. Ironically, it was his first lifetime win despite earning over $200,000 in six previous races. Nevertheless, the son of Bernstein shouldn't be shrugged off too quickly since he owns a pair of second-place finishes to Lookin At Lucky earlier in his career.
Paddy O'Prado is another horse that broke his maiden in his last start. Coincidentally, it was also a stakes race as he blew away a field of nine in the Palm Beach Stakes over a very fast turf course at Gulfstream Park. Still, it was a tailor-made trip for Paddy O'Prado, as he hugged the rail every step of the way. Don't expect a similar performance against a much better field on Saturday, particularly since he drew post seven this time around.
A colt that defeated Paddy O'Prado last summer should be able to do it again in the Blue Grass.
Interactif comes out of the San Felipe where he finished a game second to Sidney's Candy. Another in a long line of Todd Pletcher three-year-olds, the two-time stakes winner on turf should relish the Polytrack surface even more. His second dam on the female side is not only a daughter of the undefeated filly, Personal Ensign, but she's also a half-sister to champion My Flag.
The Blue Grass is not solely for turf horses as the Tampa Bay Derby winner and Florida Derby runner-up are also in the mix for top honors.
Odysseus will try to duplicate his tremendous finish at Tampa Bay, a race in which he dropped out of contention before passing horses one by one through the stretch.
Schoolyard Dreams, the horse he nailed at the wire last time out, failed miserably in the Wood Memorial so Odysseus's victory in the Tampa Bay Derby might not have been as impressive as it looked on race day. However, the two horses Odysseus knocked off in his prior two races both came back to win their subsequent start.
Pleasant Prince returns for one more race to try and earn enough money for entrance into the Kentucky Derby. The Wesley Ward-trained colt is bred to run all day and he showed it by coming up a nose short at the wire in the Florida Derby. Moreover, he breezed five furlongs in 58 2/5 over the Keeneland surface last Sunday proving he'll be able to handle the crossover to Polytrack.
On the negative side, the $30,000 yearling purchase might not give it his all, since he'll need to save his best work for May 1. Also, the pace of the race might be a bit too slow for him to make his patented late close.
Selections: 1) Interactif; 2) Pleasant Prince; 3) Odysseus
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Frida
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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Brandon Roy Favorite to Win 2007 NBA Rookie of the Year
Portland TrailBlazer’s guard, Brandon Roy, is MySportsbook.com’s overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.
Despite missing 20 games due to an injury earlier this season, Roy has definitely put up the best numbers of his 1st year peers. In 32 games, Roy is averaging 15.3 PPG, 4.2 boards and 3.5 assists in over 33 minutes of play per game. While most rookies breakdown as the season progresses (see Morrison), Roy is only getting stronger as his playing time and scoring average has increased each month.
With 30 or so games left in the regular season, Roy isn’t a lock for the award by any means. Other rookies are putting together some pretty impressive campaigns and a few could give Roy a run for the award with increased playing time. Heading the list is first pick, Andrea Bargnani of the Toronto Raptors. Even though he has started only two games all season, Bargnani is averaging 10.3 PPPG while shooting 35% from deep.
Randy Foye of the Minnesota Timberwolves could be set to give Roy the best competition NBA Rookie of the Year betting lines. With the benching of Mike James, Foye looks like he could be the starter in the T-Wolves backcourt for the rest of the season. So far, Foye has averaged 9 PPG and 2.4 assists in just under 21 minutes per game. With his new role of starter, Foye’s numbers will definitely increase. In his first game as the new starting guard this past Sunday, Foye had 10 points; five rebounds and 8 assists. More importantly, he logged 34 minutes of playing time; his third highest run of the season.
Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.
Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to bet on the NBA. With the regular season about to hit the homestretch, it is important to point out that MySportsbook.com has the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry.
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